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New analyst to the penny bid world

Started by PorkSoda , Mar 20 2014 07:09 PM

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#1

PorkSoda
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So I am new to this penny bid thing and noticed that the web is FULL of sites with all kinds of gimmicks and claims. I work for a large company doing analytics so this entire thing really interests me. My goal is to dissect these sites to see based on averages what the odds are of winning based on amount paid (for bids). My goal is to find the best site with the greatest mathematical potential for winning.

An example of this would be if a site costs 50 cents per bid for an average 1/100 chance vs a site that may be cheaper with a 10 cent bid but has odds of winning that are 1/1000, it would still be smarter to go with the 50 cent bid site.

Anyone have any thoughts on this? Has anyone done this yet?

#2

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The only thing predictable about winning in Penny Auctions is that it is un-predictable.  There are too many things to consider when trying to get items for 75-95% off.  You need to consider the traffic on the site, the clients of the site (who the other bidders are).  The price per bid doesn't really matter if you go up against a bidder who is willing to bid 2-3 times over retail to win an item.  It happens.. and sometimes a lot.   Law of averages for these folks is that if I bid like a mad man on one or two auctions, people will be afraid to bid against me on another auction and I get it for cheap.  There are 600+ bidders in the penny auction industry who know each other, have bid against each other, and have reputations for going all the way, do whatever it takes, to win an  auction.  Typically, these bidders will avoid each other due to the reputations they hold.  It's called powerbidding. It uses a tactic known as tag-and-defend.  Which means if one of them places the first bid(tag) then they will defend it till the end.  In the last 7 years I've seen $25 gift cards get $2500 in bids placed by two bidders.  

Now the other thing is finding sites that offer coupon bids, voucher bids, discounted bids, etc.  They happen all the time, so you may not really pay .50 per bid at all, but maybe .10 per bid after discounted price.   Rules vary between sites, and the amount of discounted bids being used in auctions is hardly ever apparent.  There is a site call allpennyauction.com which tracks auctions on hundreds of sites.  Their analytics are not a science because they can't determine what bids are discounted or free in their numbers.   They have good information if you need to find trends for certain bidder names. 

 

Hope this helps.


"I think I should make myself clear on something. On the phone when we last spoke I gave you verbal authorization to use the base script (telebid auction script) in your current system. When I get a chance I will send you written authorization. I will however never offer you the services of my design or coding team as I may re-enter the script market again and this would create a conflict of interest. "  per email from Josh McDonald  11/20/2011


#3

mark14
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So, are these rules apply on stamps auction sites as well?






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